Once the gavel came down in Dubai, the warm words flowed – but will it really have an impact on climate change?
The agreement reached in this glitzy metropolis for the first time nails the role of fossil fuel emissions in driving up temperatures and outlines a future decline for coal, oil and gas.
In UN terms that is historic, and the biggest step forward on climate since the Paris agreement in 2015.
But by itself, will this deal be enough to save the “north star” of this COP – keeping temperatures under 1.5C this century?
Most likely not.
The major element of the deal, the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, is indeed a landmark moment.
But the language is far weaker than many countries desired.
The UAE presidency had included strong text on the idea of a fossil fuel phase out from the start of the meeting.
But in the face of opposition from many, they dropped it from their first attempt at a draft agreement,
Cue fury among progressives and much finger pointing at oil producers.
This wasn’t all the fault of countries like Saudi Arabia.
A key factor in softening the text was the attitude of middle-income developing countries who were very uncertain about the much hyped phased out of fossil fuels.
For Nigeria, Uganda, Colombia and others there were complaints that they needed to use revenues from the sale of coal, oil and gas to ensure they could pay for the transition to greener energy.
Colombia complained that by moving away from fossil fuels, credit agencies had downgraded their rating, meaning that international loans to go green would cost them far more.
The final pact now calls on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels specifically for energy systems, but not for plastics, transport or agriculture.
The agreement also has many other elements that will help limit emissions including a new commitment to triple renewables and energy efficiency by 2030.
This will see wind and solar displace some coal, oil and gas.
